NDA Or INDIA: Split Verdict Makes New Govt Formation Interesting

New Delhi: The Bhartiya Janata Party emerged as the single largest party but fell short of 250 seats, while the Congress secured nearly 100 seats as the counting for the 2024 Lok Sabha election was nearing completion on Tuesday.
With the BJP failing to secure a majority, the roles of two NDA constituents—Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) from Bihar and N. Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party from Andhra Pradesh—will be crucial in government formation. Both have a history of shifting alliances and a background in socialist politics.
Regional parties will clearly have a strong say in whichever alliance forms the government. As of now, the NDA appears poised for a third consecutive term in power at the Centre, even with its reduced mandate, as both the BJP and the pre-election NDA emerged as the single largest entity. They will likely get the first invitation to form the government unless a dramatic turnaround occurs.
The formation of a new Narendra Modi government will now depend on the support of two veteran kingmakers — the Telugu Desam Party or TDP’s Chandrababu Naidu and Janata Dal (United) or JD(U)’s Nitish Kumar, both partners of the BJP in the NDA.
Naidu and Nitish have become the men who would prop up Narendra Modi in New Delhi.
Naidu, who contested the Lok Sabha polls and the Assembly polls in Andhra in alliance with the BJP and the jana Sena party, has been a kingmaker on many occasions in the past.
In 1996, when the electorate delivered a fractured mandate in the Lok Sabha polls, Naidu, as the convenor of the United Front, a coalition of parties not aligned with either the Congress or the BJP, propped up the H D Deve Gowda government with outside support from the Congress.
He also helped form a government at the Centre with I K Gujaral at the helm during this period.
In 1999, Naidu contested the Lok Sabha polls in alliance with the BJP and notched up 29 seats in united Andhra Pradesh. He supported the then Atal Bihari Vajpayee government which was short of majority mark. In fact, with 29 seats, TDP was BJP’s biggest ally although it did not join the government.
In 2014 too, Naidu contested in alliance with the BJP and joined the Modi government, only to leave the alliance in 2018 ahead of Assembly polls in Andhra Pradesh.
WHAT IS POSSIBLE: Emerging once again as the largest NDA partner of the BJP, Naidu could again be kingmaker and herald the resurgence of his party that has suffered some serious setbacks in the past few years.
NOTE OF CAUTION: However, it may be remembered that in a hung Parliament, there are no fixed loyalties. TDP, though formed on a plank of anti-Congressism, has earlier done business with the grand old party where it not only contested the Telangana Assembly polls in alliance with the Congress but even tried to stitch an Opposition alliance with the Congress in the lead ahead of 2019 polls.
A veteran of social justice politics in Bihar, Nitish Kumar was briefly the Union Minister for Railways and Minister for Surface Transport and, later, the Minister for Agriculture in 1998-99 in the NDA government of Atal Bihari Vajpayee. He again got the portfolio in the Vajpayee government of 2000-2004.
For the longest time, Nitish remained the senior partner in the NDA in Bihar and was the BJP’s biggest ally in 2009 winning 20 seats in the state when the saffron party did poorly at the national level.
However, of late Nitish’s politics has been characterised by a series of flip flops.
In 2014, he broke away from the NDA protesting the rise of Narendra Modi and contested the Bihar Lok Sabha polls alone, but won only two seats. Following this, he joined hands with Lalu Yadav for the 2015 Assembly elections and the alliance swept the polls.
Within two years, however, he broke away and joined the NDA again and the alliance swept Bihar Lok Sabha polls winning 39 of the 40 seats.
However, after the JDU fared poorly in 2020 Bihar Assembly polls despite the alliance winning the elections, Kumar became increasingly uncomfortable with the BJP and broke the alliance in 2022 to form a government with the RJD. However, just ahead of 2024 polls, Kumar again joined the NDA.
WHAT IS POSSIBLE: JDU’s better showing than its alliance partner in Bihar in these polls has once again brought Kumar to the Centrestage and given a new lease of life to his party.
NOTE OF CAUTION: Nitish’s famous reputation of switching sides, which has given him the reputation of “Paltu Ram” in Bihar. The more cynical observers would say he could go anywhere.