Anantnag: More than 31 percent of Covid cases reported in the month of August have been witnessed in the last week of the month, here in the ten districts of Kashmir valley, a clear indication that the infection is on a rise, yet again.

The world over, people are battling the Delta variant with travel restrictions having been enforced in many countries. In Kashmir, experts have been warning of a third wave and if the infections keep on rising like this, the situation may be perilously close to what has been predicted by experts.

Kashmir valley has so far recorded a total of 2,02,248 Covid cases since the beginning of the pandemic, among which 1,99,079 people have recovered while 2,241 have lost their lives.

“Of these cases, 2,246 have been reported in the month of August,” an official, privy to the data on Covid-19, told Kashmir Reader. “When compared to the previous months, the case load is negligible, but the recent spike is the worrying factor,” he said.

As per the data, 767 of the total cases in August have been reported in the past week. The number is more than 31 percent of the total cases. “And if you look at the trend, the numbers have been increasing consistently,” the official said.

Between August 25 and August 30, the number of cases reported fell to two digits only twice — on August 26 and 30. On other days, the daily cases have been well in excess of the hundred mark.

“On August 29, the number of daily cases was 145, and I expect the cases to increase with some more urgency from here on,” the official said.

Another worrying factor is the number of active cases, which has also increased with an increase in daily count. On August 30, Kashmir valley had 928 active cases, substantially higher than the middle of the month when the active cases fell to around the 500 mark.

“And the recovery rate has declined from 98.5 on August 1 to 98.4 on August 30. Yes, that might not look much, but we are talking about infections in excess of 2 lakh. We should be worried now,” the official said.

For now, the only positive is the number of people hospitalised for the infection. As of August 30, only 58 people remain admitted for the infection across 25 hospitals dedicated to the treatment of the infection in Kashmir.

But the numbers, says the official, will obviously increase as daily infections witness a further spike. “The only good part I see is the number of fatalities that have been reported in August. Five people have died and that is a death rate of roughly 0.2%, which is way lower than the overall death rate,” the official said.

The death rate has consistently remained over 1% throughout the pandemic. Even the overall death rate at present is 1.1%, way higher than the rate in August.

The official appealed to people to follow the protocol laid down and curtail the spread of the virus. “Or we might be in the thick of the third wave before we even realise,” he said.

Suhail A Shah