Pakistan’s GDP growth rate higher than China: Harvard study

In a major turnaround of things Pakistan’s GDP growth rate has surpassed that of China’s.

According to a study by Havard University, Pakistan’s 5.97 per cent growth rate is above that of China, which is set to grow by 4.41 per cent.

Pakistan’s predicted annual growth rate over the next 10 years is nearly 6 per cent, according to the revised growth projections presented by researchers at the Centre for International Development (CID) at the Harvard University. This is a one-point GDP increase, as in the CID’s earlier projections Pakistan’s GDP was set to grow at 5 per cent by 2025.

Except for India, Pakistan will beat all Asian economies in GDP growth. These also include giant Muslim economies.

Pakistan will be ahead of Indonesia 5.82 per cent, Turkey 5.64 per cent, Malaysia 4.82 per cent, Sri Lanka 3.77 per cent, Saudi Arabia 3.17 per cent, Bangladesh 2.82 per cent, UAE 2.41 per cent, the study says.

Led by Harvard Kennedy School, the research is called `The Atlas of Economic Complexity’.

The CID believes that the economic pole of global growth has moved over the past few years from China to neighbouring India and it is likely to stay there over the coming decade.

According to the report, with special economic zones (SEZs) being built under the China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) project, it is an opportunity for Pakistan to move away from commodity output by producing value-added goods in joint ventures with Chinese firms and increase its exports. This way, Pakistan can even faster income growth.

In a bid to materialize this growth projection, what needs to be chalked out is a multi-pronged strategy. Pakistan needs to diversify its product capabilities. With likely new FDI inflows, Pakistani firms can go into producing value added goods both for domestic consumption as well as exports.

The firms, currently content with domestic sales turnover, need to introduce some percentage of exports to their strategic plans. Similarly, Pakistan’s agriculture sector needs to address its lack of sophistication and crop and distribution losses.


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