It is anticipated that these elections will be record-breaking

Attention is now focused on the 2024 parliamentary elections, particularly on the Baramulla parliamentary seat, where former chief minister Omar Abdullah and an aspiring chief minister are considered the main contestants. In north Kashmir, there are seventeen state assembly constituencies and one parliamentary seat. In the past, it has been observed that people prioritize assembly elections over parliamentary ones. The prevailing sentiment among Kashmiri residents is that the state assembly is the primary institution for addressing local socio-economic and political issues. However, parliamentary elections are not only about political representation but also affiliations at the national level, with the expectation of immediate issue resolution. Many view parliamentary elections as more important than assembly elections. Parties consider parliamentary elections as a platform to join the national stage for party representation and to influence people in the forthcoming assembly elections. This is the first time after the abrogation that parties are stressing hugely on parliamentary elections over assembly elections based on different political developments at the central level.
North Kashmir, especially district Kupwara, has always remained vibrant in the electoral process with politically mature citizens, consistently achieving the highest polling percentages even during times of turmoil and boycott calls. Now, it is anticipated that voter turnout will be higher in every corner of the district, especially in the towns, with Kupwara expected to lead in the Parliamentary election for the first time in electoral history. Not only has the North become a bone of contention, but it also represents an intricate web of the political landscape for an intense battle.
Between the two main contenders, the National Conference (NC) and the People’s Conference (PC), the Awami Itihad Party (AIP) of Er Rasheed is anticipated as the turning point for either party’s victory or defeat. The recent fluctuations in the election wave are showing different results each day and confusing various counterparts. Keeping the political calculus of Kupwara district in mind, PC emerges as a formidable force and NC’s contender. As the electoral drama unfolds, the role of key stakeholders assumes paramount significance. Usman Majeed Bandipora, Er Rasheed of the Awami Ittehad Party (AIP), Fayaz Mir of the People’s Democratic Party (PDP), Dilwar Mir, and Muzafar Hussain Beigh emerge as potential game-changers, wielding influence and sway over crucial segments of the electorate.
The strategic wave of the election and manoeuvring, as well as the future security of these players, will be their primary concern before supporting any political party. Besides, ground sentiments and the development during their previous tenure will be the main factors for newly emerging political workers and activists. The spectre of Er Rasheed’s potential electoral prowess looms large, with his ability to garner significant support posing a formidable challenge to the established order.
Electoral politics always pose different challenges, even for larger parties. The strategy to keep pace with the wave, provide logistics to the voters, and gauge sentiment is all difficult to impose and implement on the ground. In the end, the party needs not only supporters but also workers who will provide voters with logistical support, ultimately ensuring success in elections. There are different factors that still serve as reasons for parties to win, and the sentimental card requires substantial support from the party. The Baramulla parliamentary seat is the largest and covers border areas, which have never believed in sentiment politics and have always shown respect for their vote. However, this time, main towns and cities where the polling percentage was low are expected to see a rise in sentimental voting.
The expected voting percentage is higher than in previous elections, which will break and set records, with Er Rashid becoming one of the factors contributing to the rise in the voting percentage. Winning or losing is part of the game, but a historical change is that elections are taking place without boycott calls, and people are enjoying this festival of democracy in every corner of the village.
The writer can be reached at [email protected]

  Election, Omar Abdullah

Fida Firdous