The turf-war of international world powers, the US on one hand and the Sino-Russian interests on the other, has been ploughing Pakistan into chaos, political anarchy and intractable economic instability over the past several months. The US seemed to have succeeded in taking Islamabad’s control via regime change operation in April this year, frustrating Xi Jinping’ s designs to extend his world order-challenger CPEC limb into Central Asia via Afghanistan. Vladimir Putin’s plans to join warm waters in Gawadar and opening up of a new prolific market for his gas and oil reserves were altogether jeopardised. In fact, Beijing and Moscow unlike Washington have no deep roots in the Pakistan establishment and the bastioned alliance of US-India-Japan-Australia (QUAD) has for certain scared Beijing of her expansionist ambitions on Sino-Indian borders, while the ongoing face-off with Taiwan has of late witnessed skirmishes between US and Chinese naval ships.
Sino-Indian clashes have apparently disappeared on the borders of the two nations over the past some time. A serene geopolitical atmosphere also prevails in previously highly charged Kabul. However, Russia continues to be engaged in Ukraine, with France, Germany and Turkey having backtracked on promoting their relations with the Caucasus Hulk. New Delhi, beyond doubt, managed to keep Russia and US simultaneously on board. The US is believed to have adopted a soft gesture on India’s Russian issue, evidence of the level of significance of Indo-US relations. Perceptibly, Washington’s growing diplomatic interests both in India and Pakistan have at least reduced border tensions and other forms of latent hostility.
The political scene is fast changing in Pakistan with the masses readying to throng the roads. There seems a lull before the storm on the political horizon of Pakistan. With the recent visit of Pakistan Army chief to Washington and Pentagon where meetings were held with the Secretary of Defense Lloyd J. Austin, the murky political scenario of renewed Washington-Islamabad long-term relations has started to come clear. The one-week-long visit was highly significant not only militarily but diplomatically too. The Pak Army chief made a press statement emphasising that he had moved away from politics and would not seek a second-time extension of his service, though media sources had said he had actually pleaded for the extension. The US officials at the helm of affairs invited the General to Washington at a time when he had reached towards the end of his service tenure; he was not asked to visit before in his six-year tenure as Chief of Army Staff.
The main thinktank in the US has urged the Biden administration not to bet on a lame horse, referring to General Bajwa who had created a tempestuous political environment in the country. The opinion makers warned US of an Iran prototype, should it continue with the present dispensation of rulers in Islamabad. The political analysts in both Washington and Islamabad have said that the Biden administration is mulling for an alternative political set up in Islamabad after the regime change which has stirred public anguish, reflected by the spiking popularity graph of ousted leader Imran Khan.
It is said that Washington cannot afford to walk away from Pakistan given her tremendous geo-political significance particularly vis a vis the containment of emerging China, growing military power of Russia, and the large market in Central Asian States which are yet to come out of the yolk of Russian influence. Washington is thought to be meditating on relaunching offensive against Afghanistan via Pakistan. Biden ‘s recent warning on Islamabad’s incoherent nuclear arsenal is thought to be meant to pressurise the Shahbaz regime to hand over Wakhan border to be used as US air base against Afghanistan. Should it happen, an unending grotesque scene of violence and subversion will engulf the country.
Some diplomatic circles in Washington are of the different opinion that she must not create another Iran in South Asia, for Islamabad provides the most strategic corridor of influence to safeguard American stakes in this part of the world. In point of fact, the anti-Tehran policy over the past 40 years has not substantially benefited America as it has easily pushed Tehran into the Sino-Russian camp. Beijing has already invested 400 billion in Iran, and Russia is undoubtedly standing guard at Tehran.
There came a twist in the story last month when the US ex-diplomat and expert on Pakistan affairs Robin Lynn Raphel all of a sudden landed in Pakistan to meet Imran Khan. The Shahbaz Sharif administration smelled a rat in this and tried hard to call on her but in vain. She returned to Washington without meeting anybody else. On October 5, the American Ambassador to Pakistan, Donald Blome, visited Pakistan administered Kashmir (PAK) to strengthen US-Pakistan trade and People-to-People ties, as reported. It is considered a breakthrough in the recent stalemate in the bilateral ties since exit of US-NATO forces from Afghanistan. The measure is thought to disseminate a congenial message to Islamabad whereas at the same time it did not irk New Delhi, for no wrong signal emanated from it for India.
General Bajwa now onwards is no less than a lame duck for Washington in the changing political atmosphere when some understanding with Imran Khan has been reached upon. They might need Imran Khan and a newly appointed Army chief to continue with their game. The state actors are being changed. President Biden’s remarks that nuclearised Pakistan is one of the most dangerous places came at a time when the IMF has again declined to grant loan to Islamabad for a fresh financial therapy of her hobbling economy. All this is trouble for the Shahbaz regime. The US is likely to change favourites in the Army and political leadership in that country for a new US plan that does not impinge on the whole region.
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