Srinagar: COVID-19 cases are up once again in Kashmir, and the administration is gearing up to prevent the situation from getting out of control as a third wave seems imminent. But what turn do the experts foresee the situation as taking? Dr Rouf Hussain Rather, Community Medicine Specialist and in charge of data analysis at the Divisional Covid Control Room Kashmir, said the dangers of the virus will not be as much in the past even if the third wave comes.
Speaking to Kashmir Reader, Dr Rather said that this time the cases will go up, but will be most likely less than half of the peak of the second wave. Dr Rather essentially means that the cases that went up to 10,000 a day, which was many times more than in the first wave, will not be even half of that number in the third wave it.
“The reasons are simple. About 70% of the population is fully vaccinated, while 100 percent of the adult population is vaccinated with dose 1. Most of the people are adhering to Covid Appropriate Behaviour, though not all are following it. In coming two months, almost all the adult population will be fully vaccinated. This will put the population in a better place to fight the virus,” Dr Rather said.
Dr Rouf’s prediction is based on research done by the government. According to the latest sero-study conducted, more than 90 percent of healthcare and police workers have developed antibodies, which will significantly lessen the severity of the infection even if they do contract it. About 84 percent of Kashmir’s population, too, has developed antibodies to fight the virus, the study, conducted in July, at the peak of the second wave, found.
Dr Rather said that vaccination reduces the risk of mortality by six times. Death occurs in only one out of 1,000 cases if a person is vaccinated, while seven out of 1,000 die if unvaccinated.
In the meantime, the Covid infection tally of November has already surpassed the October tally in Kashmir. The ten districts of Kashmir valley have had a total infection tally of 210449 since the beginning of the pandemic. 2279 people have so far lost their lives even as 206726 people have been declared Covid free after treatment. At present Kashmir valley has 1444 active positive cases of Covid-19.

Junaid Nabi Bazaz