With 20% of global oil at risk, New Delhi walks diplomatic tightrope between Washington, Tehran and Tel Aviv
A Spiral Without Precedent
The crisis began with a series of Israeli airstrikes targeting military and civilian sites in Syria, Lebanon, and reportedly even Iran. In response, Tehran issued one of its strongest threats in years: it might block the Strait of Hormuz, the vital route through which about 20 to 25 per cent of global oil supplies pass daily. On June 18, during a meeting of the International Maritime Organization, Iran accused Israel of endangering petrochemical facilities, while Israel claimed Iran was supporting Houthi rebels in Yemen.
The United States has openly increased its naval and aerial presence, reaffirming its commitment to defending maritime trade. It has also warned Iran against disrupting shipping routes. Iran, however, sees these movements as provocations, interpreting them through its asymmetric defence approach, which includes fast boats, drones, and sea mines.
Timeline Of Escalation
April 15: Israeli airstrike hits a weapons depot near Damascus.
May 3: The US sends a carrier strike group and B-52 bombers to the Gulf amid reports of an Iranian plot.
May 17: Iran states it will “firmly respond” to further Israeli strikes and threatens to disrupt Hormuz.
June 13-16: Analysts report a 9 per cent rise in Brent crude oil prices as tensions heighten; several vessels change their routes.
June 18: Accusations fly at the IMO as two vessels collide near the Strait of Hormuz.
Energy Markets And The Chokepoint Threat
Experts warn that even the mere possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz can cause instability in global oil markets. With shipping insurance premiums rising sharply, Brent crude prices temporarily spiked before stabilising at higher levels. Global energy agencies estimate that around 20 million barrels of oil per day—nearly a quarter of maritime oil—pass through the Strait, mostly heading to Asia, including India and China.
While a complete blockade is unlikely, energy experts suggest oil prices could exceed $100–120 per barrel if any serious disruption occurs. OPEC has expressed concern but admits it has limited options to handle a major supply shortage if Hormuz gets blocked.
China, EU, Russia: Beyond the Gulf
Other global players are not remaining idle. The European Union has increased its diplomatic efforts, urging both Tehran and Tel Aviv to show restraint. China, with its investments in Gulf energy and shipping, has called for calm but has not condemned Iran. Russia, with its connections to both Syria and Iran, could influence any further escalation depending on its strategic interests.
Human Stories: A Wary Diaspora
In Dubai, Khalid Rahman, an Indian welder, ponders quietly before starting his workday. “If war breaks out, our lives will be on hold,” he says. He is among eight million Indians working in the Gulf. The memory of the 1990 airlift of Indian citizens from Kuwait is fresh. If another evacuation is needed, India could face a significant logistical challenge amid regional unrest, restricted airspace, and strained diplomatic efforts.
India’s Diplomatic Tightrope
India’s approach to foreign policy, centred on strategic autonomy, is now facing a major challenge. It is a defence and technology partner of the United States, a key player in Iran’s Chabahar Port project, and a growing military and intelligence ally of Israel. New Delhi has called for restraint, with a spokesperson from the Ministry of External Affairs stating, “We urge all parties to exercise maximum restraint.” Behind the scenes, Indian diplomats are working carefully with Washington, Tehran, and Tel Aviv to promote de-escalation while protecting Indian interests.
The Indian Navy is on heightened alert in the Arabian Sea, with security being assessed around key shipping routes. At the same time, the Ministry of Petroleum is accelerating efforts to secure oil agreements with suppliers from Africa and Latin America. Strategic reserves are under review, and emergency protocols are being quietly updated.
Strategic Recommendations
Policy analysts believe India needs to take decisive action on three fronts. First, it should increase diplomatic pressure—through both direct interactions and multilateral platforms like the United Nations, G20, and BRICS—to advocate for de-escalation and a rules-based maritime security order. Second, India must strengthen its maritime defence to safeguard important shipping lanes. Joining regional efforts to secure oil routes could benefit India. Third, New Delhi should speed up energy diversification. Building long-term partnerships with emerging suppliers from Africa and South America is crucial to reducing dependence on Gulf-based oil supplies.
Conclusion: A Defining Moment
The current situation is not merely another chapter in Middle Eastern geopolitics. It tests India’s diplomacy, economic strength, and strategic foresight. As the world’s third-largest energy consumer and an emerging global power, India cannot afford to remain passive. Its economy, diaspora, and strategic position are closely tied to the Gulf.
The future is uncertain. Yet, as major powers edge closer to confrontation, the global community will look to responsible nations to promote peace, ensure economic stability, and prevent escalation. The way India responds to this situation may determine its role in global affairs for years to come.
In Summary, This Was A Turning Point
The current state of affairs is not just another chapter in Middle Eastern politics. It puts India’s diplomatic skills, economic power, and ability to see the big picture to the test. India is the third-largest energy consumer in the world and is becoming a worldwide force. It can’t just sit back and do nothing. The Gulf is very important to its economy, its diaspora, and its strategic location.
We don’t know what the future holds. But when large powers get closer to fighting, the world will look to responsible countries to keep the peace, keep the economy stable, and stop things from getting worse. How India handles this scenario could affect its influence in world politics for a long time to come.
The writer is a Kashmir-based journalist who writes about war, global conflict and international diplomacy from a South Asian perspective
Irfan Attari Kashmir
as************@***il.com