A tediously protracted period of twenty longish years of fighting and combat with US-sponsored NATO war on terror is seemingly coming to a grinding halt with US troops withdrawing hurriedly, leaving behind arms and ammunition and a trillion dollar investment in jeopardy. Even though American leaders outwardly don’t appear to be looking comfortable with the present circumstances that have forced them to exit from Bagram airbase near Kabul, which had been the central seat of their air-borne might in the entire region, they are yet busy searching for air bases in the vicinity of Afghanistan for a possible survival in the region.
The US has decided to withdraw from Afghanistan with a strategy to win against the Taliban indirectly: sponsoring and fanning tribal and ethnic war in Afghanistan. But till now this nefarious scheme has met with failure in the face of the US not getting any space in the surrounding countries of Afghanistan. Though erstwhile President Donald Trump was not convinced of a triumph over the Taliban, that paved the way to open up negotiation with Taliban in Moscow and Abu Dhabi for reaching an amicable settlement of two decades of bloodshed in that country, but President Biden backed by the Pentagon establishment has ultimately landed his regime in a quagmire owing to absence of any sign of reprieve from the warring militia.
With more than 80 percent of Afghanistan having fallen to the Taliban – they are reported to have besieged Kabul from its periphery –Biden has finally chosen to withdraw in the backdrop of important NATO member countries having already withdrawn. Once considered rough and tumble, Taliban today seems to be a disciplined and organised lot with brimming support from neighbouring China and also to some extent from Russia. Islamabad has emerged as the most powerful player in the Afghanistan game, so much so that Premier Imran Khan’s blatant denial to allow Pakistan’s defence airports and air space for use by the US has dashed to ground Biden’s all expectations of staying in the region to safeguard American interests.
Inevitably Pakistan has garnered this diplomatic courage through the invariable and unwavering support of Beijing and Moscow. Pakistan reportedly through her strategic depth in Afghanistan had been patiently waiting for this moment for 20 years. The capture of the 13-kilometer wide Wukhan corridor by Taliban bordering Pakistan and China has opened up a new avenue for Islamabad to trade directly with energy-rich Central Asia through Tajikistan, by passing a long route through Kabul. The other powerful players in Afghanistan, China and Russia, have made it possible to obviate an American impediment in their mutual trade through Afghanistan. Taliban doesn’t seem to be averse to investment and restructuring of their country by China, which its spokesperson Suhail Shaheen has hinted at. The militia has of late developed good enough relations with Moscow that had brokered negotiations between US envoy Zalme Khaleelzad and Taliban in the recent past.
Pakistan over the past more than three decades must have gained adequate experience on Afghanistan that would urge her not to play again a big brother role there. Afghans are known through history not to allow external interference in their domestic policies. They always prioritise the spirit of liberty, self-rule and non-interference. This has understandably actuated Imran Khan to declare officially that Islamabad was not responsible for any shortcomings in Afghanistan and that it had ordered closure of the international border with Afghanistan. The whole world now is keenly looking at as to how a new government in Kabul is formed soon after the Taliban enter the capital. The policy of vengeance against supporters of the Ghani regime, if adopted, would be no less than a political suicide by Taliban and she may lose the empathy of nations, if any.
Most of the observers of Afghanistan geo-politics are of the belief that the Taliban appear to have learned lessons from past follies and are today more pragmatic, refined and practical. It is widely believed that a traditional grand Jirga might be summoned to form the government representing all ethnicities of the land, an Afghani traditional substitute to electoral democracy, or some understanding might prevail to accommodate Ghani and some of his associates in the government, failing either of which the country might slip into yet another internecine war that the key players Islamabad, Beijing and Moscow are fully aware of.
Today’s Afghanistan is entirely a different one and has become the centre stage involving stakes of the regional powers that Taliban must be well aware of. With the change of government in Islamic Republic of Iran, Tehran seems to invigorate her efforts to secure her borders with Afghanistan so as to remain vigilant to threats from US-Israel and create a peaceful atmosphere to concentrate on her grappling economy. Obviously this would require a mutual understanding with Taliban. India had developed good relations with the Karzai and Ghani regimes both and also heavily invested in infrastructure development of Afghanistan in the past. Investment in education, roads and dam construction was undertaken. New Delhi may experience it hard to develop renewed diplomatic relations with the Taliban at the helm of affairs in Kabul but the possibilities can never be ruled out in the domain of political interests of both nations.

[email protected]

DR MUZAFFAR SHAHEEN