Afghanistan after NATO exit

Afghanistan after NATO exit

History may repeat itself too soon in Afghanistan. Nearly three decades ago when the last Soviet soldier left the Afghan soil, the events that unfolded then may get replicated exactly with the NATO exit. Afghanistan is famously considered as a graveyard for foreign invaders due to its rocky treacherous terrain that often gives strategic advantage to local Afghans against their opponents, who are not acclimatised to fight amid such tough and testing conditions. Who would have thought then that the euphoria of Soviet exit was just an illusion for the landlocked nation as the worst was yet to unfold, in the form of a bloody civil war that started between local warlords from different provinces to conquer the fortress of Kabul. Historical records are testimony to the fact that more casualties of civilians were reported due to infighting between these warlords on Afghan soil than in the war with Soviet forces. That ultimately paved the way for the Talibs (Arabic word for students), then studying in Islamic seminaries in the frontier provinces of Pakistan, to come together under the banner of a new organisation called Taliban to wage a brutal war of aggression, with the aid of Pak-Saudi alliance jointly funded by CIA, against these warlords.
What followed after was the beginning of the infamous Taliban regime. Afghanistan was rechristened from a republic to the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan. Religion was forced on people under the guise of Shariah law. The world was squeezed for women to four walls. Public hanging for crime was endorsed and Afghanistan became the new breeding ground for many Islamic fundamentalist organisations like Al Qaeda to flourish and wage war against their religious enemies. Post the 9/11 attack on America, which the US blamed on Al Qaeda forces operating from Afghanistan turned the world upside down for Afghanistan as America with its NATO allies invaded Afghan territory to quench their thirst for revenge. Since then, the US has been caught in a quagmire of a no-win situation in Afghanistan. After spending billions of dollars on sustaining its army on foreign soil, training local Afghan army in combat warfare skills, and building civilian infrastructure, they are back to square one again by deciding to call it a day and leaving Afghanistan on the 20th anniversary of 9/11 in the hands of divided mainstream politicians, poorly equipped and a least trained ANSF (Afghan National Security Force).
With intra-Afghan talks between the civilian government of Afghanistan led by Ashraf Ghani and Taliban interlocutors yet to reach a final agreement over a prisoners swap deal and removal of UN economic and trade sanctions, one can speculate only two scenarios arising out of the next intra-Afghan talks scheduled to be held in Istanbul in the near future. One is the positive scenario: If both parties agree on some common minimum peace programme and the Taliban agrees to be part of a pluralistic government, in that case it will be a win-win situation for the whole of Asia as Afghanistan is considered as the proverbial heart of Asia: when the heart is at peace, the whole body is at peace. But there are spoiler elements too, who don’t wish to see Afghanistan at peace just because it doesn’t satisfy their interests, so they try their level best to spoil this scenario and to bring about the second scenario, the dreaded one. If, God forbid, peace talks fail and the Taliban considers using force as the way forward over negotiations, then the world might see a deja vu moment of the ’90s again. Afghanistan may face a humanitarian crisis and its neighbours, especially Pakistan, will have to face the brunt of it in the form of mass exodus of refugees.
Many experts did not appreciate the decision of the US president to pull out forces, as by doing so the US has thrown the field open for a next civil war. Hastily signing a face-saving exit deal in the name of a peace deal without giving any due consideration to the peaceful future of Afghanistan, the US has already accepted it as fait accompli that the Taliban is going to take over Afghanistan again. Instead of handing over its military infrastructure, arms and ammunition to the ANSF, the US is destroying most of it, a clear sign that it does not trust the capabilities of ANSF and fears that the ANSF might surrender before the might of Taliban post-NATO exit as happened in the post-Soviet exit.
The Taliban is already running its parallel government on 30 percent of the country’s land area, and expanding it with each passing day. The 50 percent under the control of ANSF is going to shrink with the intensifying of Taliban attacks after NATO exit, while the rest 20 percent of the region is already under the cloud of war. As per a recent report by The Washington Post, fighting has intensified in recent months with battlegrounds shifting from local to urban areas now. This has set alarm bells ringing for mainstream Afghan politicians and bureaucrats about their uncertain future. There are credible media reports that already more than 23 different militia groups are involved in fighting in Afghanistan, with the ISIS being a new entrant. The coming months are going to be highly challenging for Afghanistan.

[email protected]

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published.