Second wave to last all May, decline in June: Doctor in charge of Covid data analysis

Second wave to last all May, decline in June: Doctor in charge of Covid data analysis

SRINAGAR: In Kashmir Valley, the current second wave of COVID-19 pandemic will not last long if people follow SOPs, Dr Rouf Hussain Rather, Community Medicine Specialist and in-charge of data analysis at the divisional Covid control room Kashmir, told Kashmir Reader.

Dr Rouf said that fresh positive cases will continue to climb till the last week of May, for which the reason is that the virus is spreading faster compared to the first wave of the pandemic last year.

Since the beginning of April, Jammu and Kashmir has been reeling under the second wave of Covid, recording 700 percent increase in active cases in the four weeks of April, from 2874 cases on April 1 to 22283 at the end of the month.

In the same period, 199 deaths related to Covid-19 were reported. A total 2197 Covid related deaths have been recorded in J&K. The deaths in April account for nine percent of the total deaths.

On Tuesday, 4650 fresh positive cases were reported in a day, most of them in Kashmir, the highest ever number recorded in a day.

“The infection is in the community now. But from June onwards it will start to diminish, and in July, possibly the situation will be better,” Dr Rouf said.

In February this year, Dr Rouf, much before the second wave of the pandemic hit the balley, had predicted that the second wave would start to hit from April. Based on his calculation, he had also predicted that four districts including Srinagar will be most hit. On Tuesday, Srinagar had the highest cases, and was also declared a red zone by the government.

According to Dr Rouf, the rise in positive cases is due to ramped-up testing capacity as well as fast spread of the virus in the community. On a daily basis, more than 15,000 tests are done now in Kashmir division alone.

Kashmir is struggling under the pressure of the pandemic. Almost all the hospitals are filled to capacity, both oxygen fitted beds and ICU beds. A large chunk of positive patients is receiving treatment at homem

“In this situation, the best is to follow ways of prevention from getting infected. This can be done by wearing double layer masks, maintaining social distancing, washing hands regularly, avoiding crowded places, and following all other Covid related SOPs,” Dr Rouf said.


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