Indian telecom users may soon be in for another round of tariff hikes by the end of 2025; prices could go up 10–12%
Just ten years ago, India’s mobile world looked very different. Plans were expensive, data was limited, and choices were few. If you paid Rs 298 in 2016 (before the launch of Reliance Jio), you would only get about 1GB of 3G data for the entire month. Thinking about it now, it is hard to imagine how people used 1GB of data for the whole month. The internet felt like a luxury, not a basic need.
Then came September 2016, when one company changed everything.
When Jio entered the Indian telecom market with an investment of Rs 1,52,056 crore ($20.2 billion), Reliance Jio launched its mobile network with an offer no one could resist:
(Free access to Jio apps, free calls, free text messages, unlimited 4G data.)
In fact, Jio was the first operator in India to introduce VoLTE technology (Voice over Long-Term Evolution).
Benefits Of VoLTE:
1. Offers higher spectral efficiency than conventional voice.
2. Addresses the demand for richer, more dependable services.
3. Removes the need for having voice on one network and data on another.
4. Unlocks new revenue potential, with IMS as the shared services platform.
5. May be used in parallel with video calls over LTE and RCS multimedia services such as video share, MMS, chat, and file transfer.
6. Extends handset battery life by 40% (over VoIP).
7. Provides an incredibly clear calling experience.
8. Provides rapid call establishment time.
(Jio also introduced JioTV, JioMusic – now JioSaavn, JioCloud – now Jio AI Cloud, JioCinema – now JioHotstar, and many other productivity apps.)
You could simply rush to the nearest Jio store or an authorised retailer, show your Aadhaar card or any other document for POI (Proof of Identification) or POA (Proof of Address), get a new Jio SIM card, and be eligible for Jio’s welcome offer. Reliance Jio even offered MNP (Mobile Number Portability) for those subscribers who did not want to lose their primary mobile number.
For the first year and a half, Jio’s services were completely free. Millions of people switched from their old networks to try Jio. This sudden shock forced India’s older telecom companies like Airtel, Vodafone, Idea, and BSNL to cut their prices and offer more data. But not all could handle the pressure. Many smaller companies shut down completely. Even big players like Vodafone and Idea had to merge in 2018 to survive, creating Vodafone Idea Limited (Vi).
Before 2016, India had:
1. Tata Indicom
2. Uninor (now Telenor)
3. Aircel
4. CellOne (BSNL, former branding)
5. Videocon
6. S Tel
7. Spice Telecom
8. MTS
9. Reliance Communications
10. Loop Mobile
11. Tata Docomo
12. Idea
13. Vodafone
And now:
1. Reliance Jio
2. Bharti Airtel
3. Vodafone Idea Limited (Vi)
4. Bharat Sanchar Nigam Limited (BSNL)
Of these, only two companies are the major players – Jio and Airtel, which together cover approximately 75% of the market share.
While customers enjoyed cheaper internet in the beginning, the long-term result was fewer companies left in the market.
From Cheap Data to Price Hikes
Between 2014 and 2016, mobile internet prices dropped by almost 95%. This was great for consumers. But from 2017 onwards, the good times began to fade. Tariffs started to rise again.
In 2024, all three major telecom companies raised prices by 25%. And according to a Times of India report, another 10–12% hike is coming in December 2025.
Today, the market looks like this (Market Share):
Reliance Jio: 50.74%
Bharti Airtel: 31.06%
Vodafone Idea: 13%
BSNL: 3.44%
This means Jio and Airtel together control almost 75% of India’s telecom market, creating what experts call a duopoly (a market with only two big players).
(TRAI data from May and June 2025)
Jio had 477.02 million subscribers at the end of June, compared to 475.11 million at the close of May, as per TRAI’s latest report. Airtel’s subscribers at the end of June were 391.01 million as compared to May’s 390.25 million, while Vodafone Idea’s subscribers at month-end were 204.22 million (May: 204.44 million) and BSNL’s 90.47 million (May: 90.77 million).
When competition is this low, prices usually go up, and customers have fewer choices.
Why the Government Is Trying to Save Vodafone Idea
In April 2025, the government made a big decision to stop Vodafone Idea from collapsing. It turned Rs 36,950 crore of the company’s unpaid dues into government-owned shares. This increased the government’s stake in Vi from 22% to 48.99%, making it the largest shareholder.
Vi has become a semi-government company, with the government acquiring 49% of the company’s valuation.
Why Does This Matter?
If Vodafone Idea shuts down, India will be left with only Jio and Airtel controlling almost everything. That would mean even higher prices and fewer plan options for you and me.
Vodafone Idea’s Struggle
Vodafone Idea is drowning in a Rs 2.14 lakh crore debt, most of it due to something called AGR dues (Adjusted Gross Revenue).
AGR is a special kind of government fee that telecom companies have to pay, not just on their main income from calls and data, but also on other types of income. Telecom companies call it “unfair” and “too heavy to bear.”
In 2019, the Supreme Court sided with the government, saying these dues had to be paid in full. That decision has left companies like Vi in deep financial trouble.
(Now, Vi has warned that unless it gets help or big investments, it may not survive beyond 2026.)
The BSNL Revival Plan
BSNL, run by the government, has also been struggling. But it plans to focus more on rural and smaller-town areas. With the government’s help and a big upgrade of its towers and networks, BSNL hopes to make a comeback. Still, it is far from competing with Jio and Airtel in the big cities.
In February 2025, the government allocated Rs 33,757.58 crore to BSNL in Budget 2025, a 59% decline from the Rs 82,916.20 crore allocated in the previous Budget, though it only managed to spend Rs 72,027.65 crore. The Budget also did not allocate grants-in-aid to BSNL for GST payment (according to a report by The Hindu).
So, we can say BSNL’s revival is on the cards, but it will still take a long time for BSNL to start acquiring market share again, and with the limited spectrum allocation, it seems difficult for BSNL to do so.
Why New Companies Don’t Enter the Indian Telecom Market
Starting a telecom company in India today is extremely expensive and risky because:
You have to pay huge fees for spectrum licences (the airwaves for calls and data).
The AGR system makes you pay taxes on almost all types of income.
It takes billions of rupees to build towers and infrastructure.
The existing big players are so strong that competing with them is very difficult.
SOLUTIONS:
1. Removing the AGR system and replacing it with a simple flat fee with easy instalment options, as countries like the USA and UK do.
2. Lowering spectrum and licence costs to attract more foreign companies.
3. Giving tax breaks and incentives to foreign telecom operators to enter India.
(If these changes happen, there could be more competition, better services, lower prices, and more options for subscribers.)
India’s telecom market went from being expensive and slow to cheap and fast, and now to expensive again, but with too few players.
If Vodafone Idea falls, the market will be almost entirely controlled by Jio and Airtel. That’s bad news for all of us because, without competition, prices will keep going up, and service quality may suffer. The government’s recent move to save Vi shows how important it is to keep at least three strong players in the market. The next few years will decide how this story ends.
The writer is pursuing a masters at Jain University, Bangalore
Kamran Hamid Bhat
ka************@***il.com