MOSCOW: Russia, the world’s largest wheat exporter, is facing a critical situation as severe drought conditions threaten to significantly impact its 2025 grain harvest.
Agricultural analysts and farming executives have raised alarms about the difficult winter crop sowing season, which could lead to a dramatic reduction in next year’s yield.
The Sovecon consultancy reported that wheat sowing rates in Russia have plummeted to an 11-year low, casting a shadow over the outlook for the 2025 grain harvest. This news briefly pushed Chicago wheat prices to their highest level in almost two weeks before concerns about demand caused prices to retreat.
Dmitry Rylko, head of the IKAR consultancy, described the situation to Reuters as “extremely difficult” and warned of a potentially “dramatic scenario” unfolding. He highlighted the Volgograd and Saratov regions, Russia’s fourth and sixth-largest grain-producing areas respectively, as particularly affected by the drought.
Kirill Yershov, head of Aeon Agro, which manages over 2,40,000 hectares in the Penza and Saratov regions, confirmed to Reuters that “there will be problems” with next year’s wheat harvest. He reported that planting has been reduced compared to last year due to dry soil conditions.
The severity of the situation was further emphasised by Alexander Pryanishnikov from Shchelkovo Agrokhim, who stated that farmers in the Volga area are experiencing unprecedented low sowing rates. He described the current circumstances as the most disheartening he has ever witnessed in his career working with winter crops.
This drought is part of a series of weather extremes that have hit Russia’s main agricultural areas this year, including early spring frost and heavy rains in some regions.
These conditions have dampened the recent boom in Russia’s agricultural sector, which had been a bright spot in the economy despite Western sanctions.
The impact of these weather events is already evident in Russia’s grain production. After a record harvest of 158 million metric tons in 2022, production declined to 148 million tons last year.
The official forecast for this year’s harvest is 132 million tons, with IKAR further reducing its wheat crop estimate to 81.8 million metric tons.
As the drought is expected to persist for at least another two weeks, concerns are mounting about the long-term effects on Russia’s grain production and its position as a global wheat exporter.
Agencies

Agencies