NEW DELHI: A new study by IPE-Global and Esri-India has uncovered a alarming “swapping trend” in India’s climate patterns, where traditionally flood-prone areas are now experiencing droughts and vice versa.

The research, which analysed climate data from 1973 to 2023, found that over 85% of Indian districts are vulnerable to extreme weather events, with 45% witnessing this swapping phenomenon.

The study reveals a four-fold increase in the frequency, intensity, and unpredictability of climate extremes over recent decades, with the last decade alone seeing a five-fold surge. This dramatic shift is reshaping India’s climate risk landscape at an unprecedented pace.

Abinash Mohanty, Head of Climate Change and Sustainability Practice at IPE Global and the study’s author, attributes these changes to a 0.6 degrees clicius temperature rise over the last century. He warns that by 2036, more than 1.47 billion Indians could be highly exposed to climate extremes.

The research identified specific regional trends. Eastern zone districts are more prone to extreme flood events, followed closely by the northeastern and southern zones. Southern India, particularly Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu, and Karnataka, is experiencing a notable increase in drought conditions.

Several districts have undergone a complete reversal from floods to droughts, including Srikakulum, Cuttack, Guntur, and Kurnool. Urban centers like Bengaluru, Pune, Ahmedabad, Patna, and Prayagraj are witnessing maximum swapping trends.

Experts emphasized the need for hyper-granular risk assessments and the establishment of climate-risk observatories.

The report recommends creating a Climate Risk Observatory (CRO) and an Infrastructure Climate Fund (ICF) to support climate-resilient infrastructure and foster locally-led climate actions.

Agendra Kumar, Managing Director of Esri India, highlighted the importance of geographic information systems (GIS) in building climate resilience. He suggests that GIS-driven solutions can help stakeholders better understand and mitigate the sectoral impacts of climate change.

As India grapples with these shifting climate patterns, the study points to the urgent need for comprehensive, localised climate risk assessments and targeted interventions to protect lives, livelihoods, and the economy from the escalating threats of climate change.

Agencies

Agencies