NEW DELHI: The ongoing El Nino event could deal a blow to India’s fisheries sector in the coming months, with scientists warning of lower catches of key commercial fish species such as Indian Oil Sardine and Indian Mackerel across the North Indian Ocean.
According to a new outlook issued by the Indian National Centre for Ocean Information Services (INCOIS), the persistence of El Nino is expected to warm ocean waters, increase marine heatwaves, and alter marine ecosystems, potentially affecting fisheries, coastal communities, and maritime operations.
Researchers said the warming conditions associated with El Nino are likely to cause a modest decline in landings of Indian Oil Sardine and Indian Mackerel during the upcoming fishing season. In addition to reduced catches, the average size of these fish is also expected to decrease.
“Prolonged warming, changes in ocean productivity, and shifts in fish habitats may alter the distribution of commercially important species,” the bulletin noted.
Sardines and mackerel are among India’s most economically significant small pelagic fish, supporting thousands of fishermen and contributing substantially to seafood markets along the country’s west coast.
Changes in sea surface temperatures can affect the availability of nutrients in ocean waters, reducing plankton growth that forms the base of the marine food chain.
INCOIS scientists warned that higher sea surface temperatures, increased upper-ocean heat content, and stronger ocean stratification could suppress marine productivity in several regions. These conditions may force fish populations to move to cooler waters or deeper depths, making them harder to locate and catch.
ANDAMAN’S CORAL REEFS TO BE HIT
The impact is not expected to be limited to fisheries alone. Coral reef ecosystems in ecologically sensitive regions such as Lakshadweep, the Gulf of Mannar, and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands could face increased thermal stress as ocean temperatures remain elevated. Sustained warming raises the risk of coral bleaching, which can damage biodiversity and affect tourism-dependent coastal economies.
The agency also highlighted mixed implications for maritime operations. Relatively calm conditions and longer fair-weather windows in the Arabian Sea may benefit shipping, fishing, and offshore activities.
However, the Bay of Bengal could experience rougher conditions with stronger wind-generated waves during parts of the season.
Warmer oceans may also create a favourable background environment for extreme weather events, increasing the risk of coastal erosion, flooding, and storm surges during severe storms.
INCOIS has advised fishermen, maritime operators, tourism stakeholders, and disaster management agencies to closely monitor its ocean advisories, including potential fishing zone forecasts, ocean state forecasts, high wave alerts, and storm surge warnings, as El Nino continues to reshape conditions across the Indian Ocean.
Agencies