NEW DELHI: BJP-led National Democratic Alliance (NDA) is likely to retain power in Bihar with an even greater majority than in the 2020 polls, according to data from several exit polls.
According to Matrize’s exit poll predictions, Nitish Kumar-led NDA is projected to win 147-167 seats, while Mahagathbandhan may get 70-90. The Matrize survey has predicted almost no impact of Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraaj Party, which is unlikely to open its account.
Peoples Pulse exit poll has given the NDA 133-159 seats. Mahagathbandhan, according to the Peoples Pulse, may secure 75-101. Jan Suraaj Party is predicted to win 0-5 seats. As per another survey conducted by People’s Insight, the JDU-led NDA will get a clear majority in Bihar with 133-148 seats. This survey has predicted 87-102 seats for Mahagathbandhan and 0-2 seats for Prashant Kishore’s JSP.
The exit poll predictions released by Dainik Bhaskar also predict similar results. As per Bhaskar’s post-poll survey, NDA is projected to win 145-160 seats in Bihar. The survey has predicted 73-91 seats for Mahagathbandhan.
One more opinion poll conducted by P-Marg has projected a clear majority for NDA, predicting 142-162 seats for the ruling alliance. The survey has given Mahagathbandhan 80-98 seats and 1-4 seats to Jan Suraaj party.
ABP’s exit poll survey has predicted 133-148 seats for the NDA and 87-102 seats for Mahagathbandhan. Others, including Jan Suraaj Party, may win 3-5 seats. JVC exit poll has also projected a decisive win for the NDA, predicting 135-150 seats for the BJP-JDU-led alliance. JVC has given Mahagathbandhan 88-103 seats.
DV Research exit poll has also predicted a similar story, giving NDA 137-152 seats and the Mahagathbandhan 137-152 seats. Prashant Kishore’s Jan Suraaj, according to DV Research, is projected to win 2-4 seats.
So far, eight of the exit polls cited above have predicted the NDA’s return to power in Bihar. Axis My India and Today’s Chanakya will release their Bihar exit poll predictions on Wednesday.
While the exit polls are not always accurate and have a history of incorrect predictions, they may offer a glimpse into which way the wind is blowing before the official results are out. Another thing they do is satiate the natural urge of people to know the outcome of everything before it’s officially announced.
The second and final phase of the Bihar Assembly elections 2025 recorded the highest ever voter turnout in the state’s history. According to the Election Commission of India data, approximately 68.52 per cent of voter turnout was recorded till 6 pm. In the first phase, Bihar saw a voter turnout of 64.66 per cent.
How did the exit polls fare in 2020?
Most Exit Polls in 2020 had predicted a clear victory of the Mahagathbandhan, giving the alliance up to 161 seats. The NDA was projected to win between 68 and 91 seats. A few of them, however, predicted a close contest and at least one gave the BJP-led alliance a slight edge.
However, the results were poles apart, and the NDA had secured a clear majority, winning 125 seats with 37.26 per cent vote share. The Mahagathbandhan managed to win just 110 seats, but its vote share was almost equal to the BJP’s – 37.23 per cent.
Agencies