Memorandum by the Office of National Estimates, Central Intelligence Agency, to the Director of Central Intelligence (Smith):
Dr. Frank Graham’s decision to give up further mediation efforts regarding Kashmir and instead report back to the UN Security Council has produced a strong adverse reaction in Pakistan. On March 25, US Ambassador Warren reported that he was “strongly inclined to believe” that ministerial emotions had gotten out of hand and that a decision for war against India was in the making, if it had not already been taken. On March 26, however, Warren saw Zafrullah again; the latter, who appeared more relaxed than in the previous few days, reiterated Pakistan’s willingness to consider a meeting between Prime Minister Nazimudden and Indian Premier Nehru and expressed himself favorably toward Warren’s suggestion that Graham be urged to return to the subcontinent to resume his labors.
2. In NIE–41 it was estimated that Pakistan would probably not deliberately resort to war against India, despite its strong sense of frustration over the Kashmir problem, at least “so long as the UN appears to GOP (Government of Pakistan) leaders to offer any hope of effective action.” The failure of Graham’s “one more try” at mediation has undoubtedly been a severe blow to any such hope of effective UN action, and it is extremely likely that the Pakistan Cabinet has in fact been engaged in a thorough review of its Kashmir strategy, in which the question of a resort to war may well have been raised. Nevertheless, it is improbable that a deliberate war policy is in the making. The strong deterrent factors cited in NIE–41 are still operative; although the Pakistanis might hope to secure some quick victories and then have the active fighting halted by UN action or the mutual exhaustion of ammunition supplies, they would have to fight against numerically superior forces and would risk, in any prolonged fighting, the almost certain loss of East Pakistan and major areas of the Punjab. There have been no signs of Pakistani war preparations.
3. The possibility remains that popular pressure might force the government into a war. The sudden termination of the Graham mission has aroused bitter and in some cases incendiary statements in the press and in parliament. There is at present no indication, however, that the government will be any less successful than in past crises in retaining its dominant position in Pakistani politics and in curbing the press. In fact, it is quite probable that the government has once again deliberately played up Pakistani feelings, as it has during previous periods of tension, in order to put pressure on the US and the UK.
1993: Dr Guru Shot Dead
Noted cardio-thoracic surgeon Dr Abdul Ahad Guru was shot dead by gunmen on April 1, 1993. Dr Guru was actively involved in the Kashmir movement. He was one of the founders of the erstwhile Jhelum Valley College of Medical Sciences.